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Smithers Analyst Sean Smyth, a featured speaker at FTA’s Fall Conference 2021, reports, “Total value of global printing will reach $760.6 billion in 2021, with the equivalent of 41.9 trillion A4 prints produced worldwide. This is up from $750.0 billion in 2020.” Volumes declined—down 5.87 trillion A4 prints from 2019.” The obvious reason? COVID-19.
Writing in the study The Future of Global Print to 2026, Smyth, who has spent more than 25 years in senior technology and management positions for print businesses across the supply chain, states, “Commercial, graphics, publications, packaging and label printing all face fundamental challenges in adjusting to the market space in the wake of COVID. The positive news: After a highly disruptive 2020, markets have recovered across 2021; although this is not uniform across all segments.”
Smyth maintains, “Packaging and labels print have been far more resilient and provide a clear strategic focus for the industry moving forward across the next five years.” In fact, he goes on record and says, “As a degree of stability returns to end-use markets, investment in new print and finishing equipment will be $15.9 billion this year.” His forecast: increased uptime!
Smithers anticipates that new demand in packaging and labels and in Asian growth economies will fuel a moderate increase through to 2026—at a CAGR of 1.9 percent by value, at constant prices. In 2026, total value is forecast to hit $834.3 billion. Volume growth will be slower at a 0.7 percent CAGR, rising to 43.4 trillion A4 print equivalents in 2026.
Conversely, Smyth points to more struggling areas. “The effect has been most pronounced in publications, and some graphics and commercial applications. Lockdown (stay-at-home) orders led to a sharp drop in magazine and newspaper sales, only partially compensated for by a short-term increase in orders for educational and leisure books; and much of regular commercial print and graphics work was cancelled.”
Smithers’ expert analysis identifies the following leading trends that will inform this across 2021-2026—the post-COVID world:
- Local, far less global print supply chains will be more popular. Print buyers will place less reliance on single providers and just-in-time delivery models, and instead there will be more demand for agile print services that can react quickly to shifts in market conditions
- Disrupted supply chains have generally benefitted digital—inkjet and electrophotography print—accelerating its adoption in multiple end-use segments. Digital will increase its share of the market (by value) from 17.2 percent in 2021 to 21.6 percent in 2026; making it a major focus for R&D across the industry
- Demand for printed e-commerce packaging will continue, with brands keen to offer improvements in experience and engagement. Higher-quality digital printing will be used to capitalize on improved messaging on packs, promoting other products and adding a potential revenue source for print service providers
- As the world increasingly connects electronically, print equipment will embrace more Industry 4.0 and web-to-print concepts. This will improve uptime and order turnaround, allowing better benchmarking, and for machines to publish available capacity online in real time to attract additional jobs