LEATHHEAD, UK— The U.S. printing market could see an additional decline of 6.4 percent by 2030 because of tariffs, representing the closure of more than 1,000 companies. Impacts could reshape the global printing industry, with tariff collections reaching into the tens of billions of dollars.

News of these developments comes a new white paper from Smithers, the global authority on the printing industry. Depending on the scenario, U.S. printing consumption in 2030 could range from $78.6 billion to $84.7 billion, a swing of better than $6 billion driven by tariff-related uncertainty.

“Impact of Tariffs on Printing,” projects that global printing demand will reach $355.2 billion by 2030. Additionally, it warns that growth could decline further by up to 3.1 percent in the pessimistic scenario. Key findings follow:

• Segments like commercial print and book printing face the steepest declines due to discretionary spending cuts and import reliance
• Despite pressures, packaging-related print is forecast to grow steadily, driven by e-commerce and food sectors
• Prices for U.S. manufactured paper and inks will be affected by imported raw materials, and there is not enough U.S. capacity for printing papers, inks and plates in the short term
• Export of used sheetfed offset hardware will be impacted as much of this is destined for India and China, where tariffs remain high
• Printers and suppliers could be forced to explore reshoring and regional hubs to mitigate future tariff risks
• Brands and converters are increasingly adopting a “Plus One” strategy, diversifying their sourcing beyond China to mitigate future trade risks, with Southeast Asia and Latin America emerging as key alternatives

Smithers built three robust scenarios (baseline, pessimistic and optimistic) to assess the impact of tariffs on key printing end-use printing markets, print processes and geographies. Every step was assessed by the team of print and packaging subject matter experts. The core economic assumptions utilized IMF and USITC data. 

To find out more about Impact of Tariffs on Packaging white paper, please contact Bill Allen: [email protected]