U.S. folding carton shipments are forecast to grow 1.3% in 2027, signaling a gradual market recovery with opportunities and challenges varying across end-use markets. The projection comes from the newly released 2026–27 Trends Industry Outlook & Market Data Report, independently prepared by Fastmarkets RISI for, and available exclusively to, members of the Paperboard Packaging Council (PPC).

The report examines folding carton demand across the United States and Canada and 17 end-use segments, giving industry leaders a closer look at market direction and the economic and consumer trends driving demand.

“In conversations with our members, we’re hearing more questions about changing consumer habits, evolving brand expectations, and the regulatory landscape,” said Emily Leonczyk, President of the Paperboard Packaging Council. “Those shifts have different implications depending on the markets companies serve. PPC invests in this independent research to give members credible, detailed market intelligence they can use to evaluate trends and inform their own business decisions.”

The outlook reveals important differences beneath the headline forecast. Fastmarkets identifies six end-use markets projected to grow by more than 1% annually through 2030, including cosmetics and toiletries, pharmaceuticals, and dry foods.

At the same time, pressure on household budgets, slower growth in grocery and restaurant spending, and the increasing adoption of GLP-1 medications are among the factors influencing consumer behavior and food-related packaging demand.

Beyond these market shifts, PPC is seeing continued investment among its members in production technology, workforce development, and innovative paperboard applications. From improving operational efficiency to developing packaging that replaces other materials, converters are exploring opportunities to strengthen their competitive position and respond to evolving customer expectations.

“Market forecasts tell us something about expected demand, but our members are also demonstrating what’s possible,” Leonczyk added. “Paperboard’s renewability, versatility, and performance create opportunities to solve new customer challenges. Combining that innovation with market intelligence is how we can help move our industry forward.”